IGCSE forecast grades: what they are, when they're due and how to set them

A Cambridge forecast grade is the grade a teacher expects each candidate to achieve in each syllabus they are entered for: a realistic prediction of the exam result, not a reward for effort. For the November 2026 series, forecast grades must be submitted through Cambridge International Direct by 31 October 2026. For the June series, Cambridge's exams officers guide gives 30 April, but Cambridge has not yet published its June 2027 key dates.

Cambridge uses forecast grades in threshold setting, special consideration and pre-results checks, so they deserve more care than a quick guess in a spreadsheet. This guide covers the rules (as of October 2026) and a practical way to set forecasts from evidence.

What is a forecast grade?

It is your realistic prediction of the grade each candidate will achieve for the whole syllabus. The Cambridge Handbook 2026 is explicit that it is not the teacher's assessment of the quality of the candidate's work during the course, or of their effort.

Three things follow from that definition:

• One grade per syllabus, not per paper. You forecast the overall syllabus grade, for example 0580 Mathematics, not a grade for Paper 2 and another for Paper 4.
• It must fit the entry. In 0580, Core candidates can only be awarded grades C to G, so a Core candidate can't have an A forecast however strong their mock was.
• "X" means no forecast. If you genuinely can't forecast a grade, for example for a private candidate, Cambridge asks you to enter X.

What does Cambridge use forecast grades for?

Cambridge says it uses forecast grades to inform decisions about syllabus grade thresholds, to help adjust marks when a school applies for special consideration, and to carry out checks before results are released. It also says that if you don't submit forecast grades, you disadvantage your candidates, because it can't apply these quality assurance processes without them.

Special consideration is a small adjustment. The Handbook describes it as normally applying a tariff, a small percentage of additional marks, to an affected component. An honest forecast helps Cambridge judge a candidate's case. An inflated one doesn't help anyone.

For how thresholds themselves are set, see how IGCSE grade thresholds are set.

When are forecast grades due?

The November 2026 deadline is 31 October 2026. Cambridge's exams officers guide gives 30 April as the June series deadline. Cambridge Associates set earlier internal deadlines for their Associate Centres, so check with yours.

As of October 2026, Cambridge had not yet published its June 2027 key dates document. Confirm the date there before you set an internal deadline.

Notice that in both 2026 series the forecast deadline fell after the timetabled exam period had started. Don't leave forecasts to the week of the deadline. Set them from evidence gathered before the exams begin. For the full list of entry, coursework and results dates, see our IGCSE exam deadlines for 2026–27.

How are forecast grades submitted?

Your exams officer submits them in Cambridge International Direct, either candidate by candidate or as an import file. Cambridge does not send printed forecast grade forms in the pre-exam despatch. The Handbook 2026 sets out the steps:

1. In the 'Administer Exams' section of Direct, go to the Dashboard and open the 'Forecast grades' link for the series. You see a list of candidates by syllabus. Alternatively, upload all grades together through 'Import Grades'.
2. Choose the forecast grade for each candidate and syllabus. Enter X where you can't forecast.
3. Before submitting, download the CSV report and check it. Once a grade is submitted, you can't change it through Direct.
4. To change a submitted grade, email Cambridge at info@cambridgeinternational.org.

You can submit as soon as Cambridge has processed your entries. UK centres can also submit through the A2C Migration Application, depending on their MIS.

A workable division of labour: teachers set and justify the grades, the head of department signs them off, and the exams officer runs the CSV check and submits.

Are forecast grades shared with students?

Cambridge doesn't set a rule on this. The Handbook and exams officers guide describe forecast grades as information schools send to Cambridge for quality assurance. They say nothing about reporting them to candidates. Whether you share them is a school policy decision.

If you do share them, explain what they are. A forecast is a realistic prediction made at a point in time. Cambridge works out results from candidates' marks and the syllabus grade thresholds, not from forecasts.

Does Pearson Edexcel ask for forecast grades?

Pearson's 2026/27 Information Manual for International GCSE, and its key dates document, list entry, coursework and results deadlines but no forecast grade deadline. If you teach both boards, the forecast grade step applies to your Cambridge entries. Check with Pearson directly if you are unsure about a particular qualification.

How to set forecast grades from evidence: a six-step method

Base each forecast on a properly marked, properly converted, moderated mock, then check it against question-level evidence and a written rationale. The steps below are what that looks like in practice.

1. Start from a full mock, marked and converted correctly

Use complete past papers sat under timed conditions where you can. Mark strictly against the mark scheme first, then convert raw marks to a grade using the threshold table from the same series and variant the paper came from, with Cambridge's weighting factors. Our guide to which grade boundaries to use for IGCSE mocks walks through the conversion.

2. Watch the variant

Thresholds differ between variants of the same paper in the same series. In June 2026, a total of 140/200 in 0580 Extended was an A on variant 1 (A threshold 138) but a B on variants 2 and 3 (A threshold 154). If you convert a variant 2 paper with variant 1 thresholds, you will over-forecast. Note in your records which series and variant each mock used.

3. Use question-level analysis, not just the total

Two candidates on the same total can be in very different positions. One may be losing marks on a single untaught topic. The other may be dropping marks across every topic. A question-level analysis of the mock shows which. That tells you whether the remaining teaching time realistically changes the forecast.

4. Moderate before you forecast

If one teacher marks generously and another harshly, the forecasts for their classes aren't comparable. Run a short standardisation and moderation sample before converting to grades. Our guide to moderating IGCSE mock marking in a department sets out a quick process.

5. Decide borderline candidates with a rule

For candidates within a few marks of a threshold, agree a department rule in advance and apply it consistently. For example, you might look at a second piece of evidence, such as an earlier assessed paper, and forecast the grade that both pieces support. Avoid rounding everyone up. Cambridge asks for the grade you expect the candidate to achieve, and a forecast is not a target.

6. Write down the evidence

Keep a one-line record per candidate and syllabus:

The example values in that table are illustrative, not real data. A record like this makes forecasts defensible. It's also useful later in the year, when you review results against forecasts or prepare a special consideration application.

FAQ

What is a forecast grade for Cambridge IGCSE?

It is the grade the teacher expects a candidate to achieve for the whole syllabus. Cambridge says it is not the teacher's assessment of the quality of the candidate's work during the course, or of their effort.

When are Cambridge forecast grades due for November 2026?

Forecast grades for the November 2026 series must be submitted by 31 October 2026. The June series deadline in Cambridge's exams officers guide is 30 April.

What does Cambridge use forecast grades for?

Cambridge uses them to inform decisions about syllabus grade thresholds, to help adjust marks when special consideration is applied for, and to carry out checks before releasing results.

Can I change a forecast grade after submitting it?

Not through Direct. Once a grade is submitted, you need to email Cambridge to change it, which is why the Handbook asks you to download and check the CSV report before submitting.

Do Pearson Edexcel International GCSEs need forecast grades?

Pearson's 2026/27 International GCSE information manual and key dates list no forecast grade deadline. The forecast grade requirement described here is Cambridge's.

Sources

• Cambridge Handbook 2026 (International), section 4.1 Forecast grades and section 5.5 Special consideration
• Cambridge exams officers guide, Phase 4: Before the exam (forecast grades)
• Cambridge key dates for November 2026 series (International)
• Cambridge key dates for June 2026 series (International)
• Cambridge IGCSE Mathematics 0580 grade threshold table, June 2026
• Cambridge, Understanding results (guide for teachers)
• Pearson Qualifications Information Manual 2026/27: International GCSE
• Pearson Qualifications Information Manual 2026/27: Key dates